内容来源：https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/27/this-thanksgivings-real-drama-may-be-michael-burry-versus-nvidia/

内容总结：

著名投资人迈克尔·贝瑞正对人工智能巨头英伟达发起一场日益激烈的做空行动。这位因电影《大空头》而广为人知的投资者，近期通过新建的付费专栏"解放的卡珊德拉"持续抨击英伟达，其核心论点是：当前AI热潮与2000年互联网泡沫如出一辙。

贝瑞的指控具体而严厉：他指责英伟达通过股权补偿使股东损失1125亿美元，相当于削减了50%的实际收益；质疑AI企业通过延缓设备折旧来美化报表；更指出市场需求存在泡沫，客户资金实则来自"经销商循环融资"。为佐证其观点，他持有价值超10亿美元的看跌期权，做空目标还包括Palantir等AI概念股。

面对质疑，英伟达上周向华尔街分析师发出7页备忘录强势回应，称贝瑞的计算方式存在谬误，实际回购金额应为910亿美元，并强调公司薪酬体系符合行业标准。这场交锋引发市场高度关注，不仅因为贝瑞曾精准预测次贷危机，更因其新专栏上线不到一周即吸引9万付费订阅者，其观点正通过不受监管约束的渠道持续扩散。

历史经验显示，权威做空者的发声可能形成自我应验的预言。著名做空者吉姆·查诺斯对安然公司的揭露，大卫·艾因霍恩对雷曼兄弟的质疑，都加速了这些企业的崩溃。当前英伟达市值已达4.5万亿美元，是2023年初的12倍，其能否维持AI时代"最重要公司"的地位，正面临前所未有的考验。

这场多空对决的本质，是关于AI产业前景的认知博弈。一方认为这是改变世界的技术革命，另一方则视其为注定破灭的投机泡沫。随着贝瑞获得更自由的发声平台，其观点能否引发市场连锁反应，或将决定整个AI行业的走向。

中文翻译：

当你们为感恩节琐事忙得焦头烂额时，著名投资者迈克尔·贝瑞——那位被克里斯蒂安·贝尔在《大空头》中塑造的原型——正对英伟达发动愈发猛烈的攻势。

这场对决值得关注，因为贝瑞或许真能取胜。与其他所有关于AI泡沫的警告不同，贝瑞如今既拥有听众群体，又不受监管约束，这使他可能成为其预言中那场崩盘的催化剂。他不仅做空AI热潮，更主动说服日益壮大的追随者群体：那个被奉若神明的英伟达实则外强中干。

当前众人瞩目的焦点是：贝瑞能否成功播下足够多的疑虑，真正重创英伟达，进而波及这场大戏的其他主角——包括OpenAI？

近几周贝瑞可谓倾尽全力。他持续向英伟达泼脏水；当监管文件披露他持有这两家公司巨额看跌期权（价值超10亿美元的崩盘对赌）后，又与Palantir首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普展开激烈骂战。（卡普在CNBC上直斥贝瑞策略"荒谬透顶"，贝瑞则反讽卡普不懂如何阅读SEC文件）。这场争执折射出市场的核心分歧：AI究竟将颠覆一切值得万亿投资，还是已陷入注定惨淡收场的狂热境地？

贝瑞的指控具体而犀利。他指出英伟达的股权补偿使股东损失1125亿美元，实质"将所有者收益削减50%"; 指控AI企业通过延缓快速贬值设备的折旧周期来粉饰报表（他认为英伟达客户故意夸大GPU使用寿命以合理化失控的资本支出）；对于汹涌的客户需求，他直指那是"海市蜃楼"，因AI客户实则通过循环融资方案"从经销商获取资金"。

引用贝瑞观点者日益增多，迫使实力雄厚、刚发布亮眼财报的英伟达不得不作出回应。其上周末向华尔街分析师发送的七页备忘录（由《巴伦周刊》首发披露）反驳称贝瑞计算有误，"错误计入RSU税项"（实际回购额为910亿美元），员工薪酬"与同业持平"，并严正声明英伟达绝非安然。

贝瑞的回应言简意赅：我未将英伟达比作安然，而是比作1990年代末的思科——当时思科过度建设无人需要的基础设施，真相大白后股价暴跌75%。

到明年感恩节时，这场风波或许只是茶杯里的风暴，亦或不然。

英伟达股价自2023年初已飙涨十二倍，市值达4.5万亿美元，其问鼎全球市值冠军的速度创下市场历史之最。

但贝瑞的过往记录错综复杂。他因预言次贷危机声名鹊起，但2008年后持续预判各种末世危机，被批评者贴上"永久熊市论者"标签，致使那些迷信他的投资者错失史上最大牛市。他早期聪明地买入游戏驿站，却在迷因股爆发前抛售；做空特斯拉则巨亏收场。次贷危机精准预测后，其基金因长期表现低迷遭投资者大规模赎回。

本月初，贝瑞撤销其Scion资产管理公司在SEC的注册，称"监管合规限制实质上扼杀了我的发声自由"，对人们曲解其在X平台发言感到沮丧。

上周末他推出年费400美元的付费专栏"解缚的卡珊德拉"，宣告将以此为主阵地控诉整个AI产业复合体。专栏描述称这是贝瑞"唯一专注领域，他将带您直击其对股票、市场与泡沫的分析预测，常以历史视角审视永恒循环的规律"。

市场显然在侧耳倾听。专栏推出不到一周即收获九万订阅者，这将那个令人不安的疑问再度置于聚光灯下：贝瑞究竟是警示必然崩盘的煤矿金丝雀，还是说他的声望、履历、不受束缚的言论及快速扩张的听众群体，本身就会引爆他预言中的那场崩塌？

历史暗示这并非杞人忧天。著名做空者吉姆·查诺斯未伪造安然账目，但2000-2001年间的高调批评赋予其他投资者质疑的勇气，加速其瓦解；对冲基金经理大卫·艾因霍恩2008年对雷曼兄弟会计手段的详尽剖析加剧市场疑虑，可能催生导致崩溃的信心崩塌。两起事件中根本性问题确实存在，但拥有话语权的可信批评者引发的信心危机形成了自我应验。

若有足够投资者采信贝瑞关于AI过度建设的观点，抛售行为将验证其看空理论，继而引发更汹涌的抛售潮。贝瑞无需每个细节都准确——他只需具备足够说服力来点燃这场踩踏。观察英伟达十一月表现，易得出贝瑞警告正在生效的结论；但纵观其全年走势，此说尚难定论。

更显而易见的是：英伟达拥有令人瞠目的巨额市值与AI时代最关键企业的地位，这一切都可能失去；而贝瑞除声誉外毫无损失，且手握那把新扩音器，在可预见的未来必将全力发声。

英文来源：

While you’ve been sweating the details over Thanksgiving, famed investor Michael Burry – the one portrayed by Christian Bale played in “The Big Short” – has been waging an increasingly aggressive war against Nvidia.
It’s a battle worth watching because Burry might actually win it. What makes this different from every other warning about an AI bubble is that Burry now has the audience and the freedom from regulatory constraints to potentially become the catalyst for the very collapse he’s predicting. He’s betting against the AI boom, but he’s also proactively trying to convince his growing number of followers that the emperor – Nvidia – has no clothes.
What everyone is now wondering is whether Burry can create enough doubt to truly hobble Nvidia and, by association, the other main characters in this story, including OpenAI.
Burry has really thrown himself into the effort in recent weeks. He’s been slinging mud at Nvidia; he also traded nasty comments with Palantir CEO Alex Karp after regulatory filings revealed Burry held bearish put options on both companies – a bet worth over $1 billion that they’d crash. (Karp went on CNBC and called Burry’s strategy “batshit crazy,” to which Burry responded by mocking Karp for not understanding how to read an SEC filing.) The spat encapsulates the market’s central divide: is AI going to transform everything and thus worth every billion invested, or are we now in mania territory that’s destined to end badly?
Burry’s allegations are specific and damning. He says Nvidia’s stock-based compensation has cost shareholders $112.5 billion, essentially “reducing owner’s earnings by 50%.” He has suggested that AI companies are cooking their books by slow-walking depreciation on equipment that’s losing value fast. (Burry believes that Nvidia customers are overstating the useful lives of Nvidia’s GPUs in order to justify runaway capital expenditures.) As for all that customer demand, Burry has basically proposed it’s a mirage because AI customers are “funded by their dealers” in a circular financing scheme.
Enough people have begun citing Burry that Nvidia, despite all its muscle and might and blowout earnings report last week, felt compelled to respond recently. In a seven-page memo sent to Wall Street analysts last weekend by Nvidia’s investor relations team – a development first reported by Barron’s – the company fired back, saying that Burry’s math is wrong, including because he “incorrectly included RSU taxes” (the real buyback figure is $91 billion, not $112.5 billion, the memo says). Nvidia’s employee compensation is also “consistent with peers.” And Nvidia is definitely, absolutely, not Enron, thank you very much.
Burry’s response, in a nutshell: I didn’t compare Nvidia to Enron. I’m comparing Nvidia to Cisco circa the late 1990s, when it overbuilt infrastructure that nobody actually needed at the time and its stock cratered 75% when everyone realized as much.
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Join the Disrupt 2026 Waitlist
Add yourself to the Disrupt 2026 waitlist to be first in line when Early Bird tickets drop. Past Disrupts have brought Google Cloud, Netflix, Microsoft, Box, Phia, a16z, ElevenLabs, Wayve, Hugging Face, Elad Gil, and Vinod Khosla to the stages — part of 250+ industry leaders driving 200+ sessions built to fuel your growth and sharpen your edge. Plus, meet the hundreds of startups innovating across every sector.
This could all look like a tempest in a teapot by Thanksgiving next year. Or not.
Nvidia’s stock has gone up twelvefold since early 2023. The company’s market cap at this moment is $4.5 trillion. Its ascent to becoming the world’s most valuable company is faster than anything the market has seen previously.
But Burry has a track record that’s complicated. He called the housing crisis, which brought him great acclaim. But since 2008, he has been predicting various apocalypses pretty much constantly, earning him the label “permabear” from critics, while people who listen to him with a kind of cult-like devotion have missed some of the greatest bull runs in market history. Burry smartly bought GameStop early, for example, but he then sold his shares before the meme stock explosion. He shorted Tesla and lost a fortune. After his smart housing crisis call, frustrated investors actually fled his fund because of extended underperformance.
Earlier this month, Burry deregistered his investment firm, Scion Asset Management, with the SEC. He said it was because of “regulatory and compliance restrictions that effectively muzzled my ability to communicate,” explaining that he was frustrated, watching people misinterpret his tweets on X.
Last weekend, he launched a Substack called “Cassandra Unchained” that he’s now using to prosecute his case against the entire AI industrial complex. The descriptor for the newsletter, a yearly subscription to which costs $400, is that it is now Burry’s “sole focus as he gives you a front row seat to his analytical efforts and projections for stocks, markets, and bubbles, often with an eye to history and its remarkably timeless patterns.”
People are definitely listening. The newsletter launched less than a week ago, and it already has 90,000 subscribers. Which brings us again to the truly unsettling question hanging over all of this: Is Burry the canary in the coal mine, warning of a collapse that’s inevitable, or could his fame, his track record, his now unrestricted voice, and a fast-growing audience trigger the very implosion he’s predicting?
History suggests this isn’t so crazy. Jim Chanos, the famous short seller, didn’t create Enron’s accounting fraud, but his high-profile criticisms in 2000 and 2001 gave other investors permission to question the company and accelerated its unraveling. Prominent hedge fund manager David Einhorn’s detailed takedown of Lehman Brothers’ accounting tricks at a 2008 conference made other investors more skeptical and may have hastened the loss of confidence that led to collapse. In both cases, the underlying problems were real, but a credible critic with a platform created a crisis of confidence that became self-fulfilling.
If enough investors believe Burry about AI overbuilding, they will sell. The selling will validate his bearish thesis. More investors will sell. Burry doesn’t need to be right about every detail – he just needs to be persuasive enough to trigger the stampede. Looking at Nvidia’s November performance, it’s easy to conclude Burry’s warnings are taking hold; seeing its shares’ performance over the entire year, it’s less obvious that’s the case.
Much clearer is that Nvidia has everything to lose, including an almost mind-blowingly massive market cap and its position as the most indispensable company of the AI age. Meanwhile, Burry has nothing to lose but his reputation and a new megaphone that he’ll presumably be using at full volume for the foreseeable future.