内容来源：https://www.geekwire.com/2025/alien-interstellar-comet-3iatlas-speculation-viral/

内容总结：

星际彗星还是外星飞船？社交媒体如何将科学发现推向"神秘经济"漩涡

今年7月，一颗被命名为3I/ATLAS的天体闯入太阳系，成为人类已知的第三颗星际访客。尽管天文学界已根据观测数据将其归类为彗星，但它在社交媒体上却引发了另一场风暴：约40%的相关讨论将其与外星文明或外星技术直接关联。

华盛顿大学"知情公众中心"博士后研究员默特·巴亚尔近日发布分析报告，追踪了这场"外星猜想"的发酵路径。研究发现，在7月1日至11月21日期间，社交媒体平台X上约70万条相关帖文中，近28万条涉及外星话题，其中超过8.2万条明确关联哈佛大学天文学家阿维·勒布提出的"外星技术假说"。

勒布曾因将此前发现的星际天体"奥陌陌"解释为"外星文明探测器"引发争议。今年3I/ATLAS的发现，再次激活了他的猜想体系。巴亚尔指出，尽管勒布偶尔会说明该天体"大概率是自然彗星"，但其大量关于天体"异常特征"的推测性论述，在传播中逐渐淹没了科学 disclaimer，使讨论焦点从自然现象转向了外星叙事。

这种传播现象被巴亚尔称为"神秘经济"——当前信息生态系统倾向于奖励制造悬念和猜测的内容生产者。各类网站、跨平台创作者构成了一套完整的传播链条，不断消化科学家提出的"异常点"，即使这些猜想已被NASA等机构间接反驳，仍能持续生成新的悬念和可循环利用的内容。

宾州州立大学天文学家杰森·赖特曾在其博客中逐条分析过勒布列举的"异常"，并提供了不涉及外星技术的解释。但巴亚尔的研究重点并非天体本身，而是社交媒体时代的认知形成机制。他指出，这种"认知填补"模式自古有之：当自然解释显得不完整时，人们倾向于用更高力量填补空白——"在古代是奥林匹斯众神，在今天则是外星文明"。

值得注意的是，相关讨论目前仍主要局限在UFO爱好者社群内，尚未成为全民性话题。但随着3I/ATLAS将于12月19日抵达近地点，新一轮观测图像或将为这场"外星猜想"再添燃料。

这项研究揭示的传播机制，实际上也适用于疫苗怀疑论、国会山事件等领域的阴谋论传播分析。在信息碎片化的时代，当科学解释存在认知缺口时，社交媒体如何塑造公众认知，已成为值得持续关注的科学传播课题。

中文翻译：

一艘星际飞船正在我们的太阳系中疾驰而过吗？这是不明飞行物爱好者们热议的话题，也是华盛顿大学一位研究员深入探讨的问题——他分析了关于星际彗星3I/ATLAS的种种猜想。

华盛顿大学"知情公众中心"的博士后学者梅尔特·巴亚尔以3I/ATLAS为研究对象，追踪社交媒体意见领袖如何用夸张的推测填补信息空白。巴亚尔在给GeekWire的邮件中解释道："我此前曾研究过专家观点如何通过精英驱动的谣言传播机制助长阴谋论。我在哲学、认识论和阴谋论政治学方面的学术兴趣，加上对太空相关阴谋论的个人兴趣，促使我深入观察3I/ATLAS现象。"

他本周发表的研究报告题为《填补空白的异星：3I/ATLAS如何被塑造成网络热议的宇宙飞船》。标题灵感源自"填补空白的上帝"这一概念——该概念揭示了历代思想家如何通过诉诸更高力量来解释他们无法完全理解的现象。

在古希腊，这些更高力量可能是奥林匹斯山上的众神。巴亚尔指出当今存在类似现象："当自然解释显得不完整时，我们便用另一种更高力量来替代——这次不是宙斯，而是外星生命。"今年7月3I/ATLAS被发现时，这类疑问备受关注。该天体的运行轨迹表明，它可能只是第三个已知从太阳系外闯入的星际访客。即便天文学家已收集证据将其归类为彗星，3I/ATLAS仍表现出足够多的异常特征，持续引发关于外星科技的猜测。

这些猜测如何持续发酵？关键人物是哈佛天文学家阿维·勒布。早在3I/ATLAS被发现前数年，勒布与同事就曾提出：此前观测到的星际天体"奥陌陌"可能是外星文明故意派遣到地球附近的完整探测器。勒布在后续研究论文和2023年出版的著作中反复探讨外星科技主题。今年3I/ATLAS的发现为他的推测注入了新动力。

为追踪这些推测如何影响网络讨论，巴亚尔使用Brandwatch媒体分析平台，研究了7月1日至11月21日期间社交媒体X上约70万条相关帖文。他在报告中指出："近28万条帖文提及外星人或外星科技，约占X平台3I/ATLAS讨论量的40%。"约13万条帖文直接引用勒布姓名或其哈佛科学家身份，超过8.2万条帖文明确将其名字与外星科技假说相关联。

巴亚尔坦言："公平地说，阿维·勒布有时会声明3I/ATLAS很可能是自然形成的星际彗星。但他随后花费更多时间阐述所谓的'异常特征'，并探讨外星科技假说。对大多数受众而言，推测的规模和重点论述实际上掩盖了最初的免责声明，使讨论焦点从自然彗星解释转向了外星框架。"

这一切都融入巴亚尔所称的"谜团经济"网络生态。他写道："我们的信息系统助长了谜团与推测的滋生。这种效应又被现成的生态系统放大——各类网站、跨平台内容创作者不断生产、传播和放大推测性观点。这些创作者需要持续供应'新'素材，而勒布不断扩充的异常特征清单（即便被NASA等机构间接反驳）正好满足了他们对持续谜团和可循环内容的需求。"

若您对这些异常特征感到好奇，宾州州立大学天文学家贾森·赖特（专注于系外行星研究与地外文明搜寻）在上月发布的博客文章中，逐条分析了勒布列举的异常点（并提供了不涉及外星生命的解释）。但巴亚尔研究的核心意义更关乎社交媒体动态而非行星科学。从"填补空白的异星"研究中获得的见解，可应用于从疫苗怀疑论到1月6日管道炸弹嫌疑人搜寻等各类阴谋论领域。

虽然巴亚尔将统计分析限于X平台，但他发现信息在不同网络平台间流动的迹象。他告诉GeekWire："X平台3I/ATLAS讨论中最常出现的词汇之一是'@YouTube'，表明许多X账号正在回应或分享YouTube视频。"由于数据获取限制，我们无法确定单一传播枢纽，但可以确定X平台的讨论既分布广泛，又主要局限在外星相关社群：总讨论量仍不足百万条，说明尚未突破UFO/UAP爱好者圈层成为真正的大众病毒式话题。

但情况可能改变。3I/ATLAS将于12月19日最接近地球，这意味着将出现更多天文观测图像，也可能引发新一轮网络推测热潮。

特别感谢朱利安·德·温特授权转载其与维克多·萨贝特于11月25日通过得克萨斯州星空天文台望远镜拍摄的3I/ATLAS图像。

英文来源：

Is an interstellar spacecraft zooming through our solar system? That’s the big question for fans of unidentified flying objects — and for a researcher at the University of Washington who analyzed the speculation over the interstellar comet known as 3I/ATLAS.
Mert Bayar, a postdoctoral scholar at the UW Center for an Informed Public, focused on 3I/ATLAS to track how social-media influencers use over-the-top speculation to fill in information gaps.
“I’ve written previously on how expert opinions can fuel conspiracy theorizing through elite-driven rumoring and amplification,” Bayar explained in an email to GeekWire. “My academic interest in philosophy, epistemology and the politics of conspiracy theories, plus a personal interest in space-related conspiracy theories, led me to look more closely at 3I/ATLAS.”
His analysis, published this week, is titled “Alien of the Gaps: How 3I/ATLAS Was Turned into a Spaceship Online.” The title takes inspiration from a concept known as “God of the Gaps,” which traces how thinkers through the ages explained phenomena they couldn’t fully understand by appealing to the influence of higher powers.
In ancient Greece, those higher powers might have been the gods on Mount Olympus. Bayar argues that a similar process exists today: “Where natural explanations feel incomplete, we substitute a different higher agency, not Zeus this time, but extraterrestrials,” he writes.
Such questions came into the spotlight when 3I/ATLAS was spotted in July. The object’s trajectory suggested that it was only the third known celestial interloper coming into the solar system from far beyond. Even after astronomers built up evidence to classify it as a comet, 3I/ATLAS exhibited enough anomalous behavior to sustain speculation about alien technology.
Exactly how was that speculation sustained? A key figure is Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb. Years before 3I/ATLAS was found, Loeb and a colleague raised the possibility that a previously sighted interstellar object known as ‘Oumuamua “may be a fully operational probe sent intentionally to Earth vicinity by an alien civilization.”
Loeb hit upon the alien-technology theme repeatedly in follow-up research papers and a book published in 2023. This year’s discovery of 3I/ATLAS gave a fresh boost to his speculative musings. To track how such musings influenced online discussions about 3I/ATLAS, Bayar used a media analytics platform called Brandwatch to analyze roughly 700,000 posts about the comet that were published on the X social-media channel between July 1 and Nov. 21.
“Almost 280,000 of the 700,000 posts invoke aliens or ET technology — about 40% of the 3I/ATLAS conversation on X,” Bayar writes. About 130,000 posts reference Loeb by name or by his status as a Harvard scientist. More than 82,000 posts explicitly pair his name with the alien-technology hypothesis.
“To be fair, at times, Avi Loeb states that 3I/ATLAS is most likely a natural interstellar comet,” Bayar says. “But he then spends far more time walking through its supposed ‘anomalies’ and entertaining the alien-technology hypothesis. For most audiences, the volume and emphasis of that speculation effectively buries the initial caveat and recenters the story around the alien frame rather than the natural-comet explanation.”
All that feeds into a broader online ecosystem that Bayar calls the “mystery economy.”
“Our information systems reward the production of mystery and speculation,” he writes. “That reward is amplified by a ready-made ecosystem of websites, content creators across platforms who produce, spread and amplify speculative takes. Those creators need a steady supply of ‘new’ material, and Loeb’s ever-growing list of anomalies, even when indirectly refuted by organizations like NASA, feeds that need for sustained mystery and endlessly recyclable content.”
In case you’re curious about the anomalies, Penn State astronomer Jason Wright, who focuses on studies of extrasolar planets and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, ticks through Loeb’s list (and offers explanations that don’t involve aliens) in a blog post that was published last month.
But the point behind Bayar’s research has more to do with social-media dynamics than with planetary science. The insights gained from studying the “Alien of the Gaps” could well be applied to other spheres of conspiratorial theorizing, ranging from vaccine denialism to the search for a Jan. 6 pipe-bomb suspect.
Bayar had to limit his statistical analysis to posts about 3I/ATLAS on X, but he saw signs that information was flowing between different online platforms. “One of the most frequently appearing terms in the 3I/ATLAS conversation on X is ‘@YouTube,’ suggesting that many X accounts are reacting to or sharing YouTube videos,” he told GeekWire.
“Because of data-access constraints, we can’t confidently identify a single ‘nexus’ of spread,” Bayar said. “What we can say is that the conversation on X is both widely distributed and largely contained within alien-adjacent communities: Total volume is still under a million posts, which suggests it hasn’t broken out into a truly mass-viral story beyond the UFO/UAP crowd.”
That could change, however. 3I/ATLAS is due to make its closest approach to Earth on Dec. 19, which means there’ll be further opportunities for astronomical imagery — and for speculative online buzz.
Thanks to Julien De Winter for permission to republish a Nov. 25 image of 3I/ATLAS that was captured by Victor Sabet and De Winter using a Starfront Observatories telescope in Texas.